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FA Cup | Final
Jun 3, 2023 at 3pm UK
Etihad Stadium
MU

Man City
2 - 1
Man Utd

Gundogan (1', 51')
Ortega (81'), Rodri (90')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Fernandes (33' pen.)
Wan-Bissaka (45+4'), Fred (79')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Brentford 1-0 Man City
Sunday, May 28 at 4.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Man Utd 2-1 Fulham
Sunday, May 28 at 4.30pm in Premier League

We said: Manchester City 2-1 Manchester United

Whether we see an end-to-end classic or a more closely-fought contest remains to be seen, but Guardiola and Ten Hag should have few problems motivating their players for arguably the biggest Manchester derby in history. One of these teams is guaranteed to lift a second trophy of the season, but we believe that the superiority that Man City possess in all departments, particularly in attack with the presence of Haaland, will come to the fore, with sky blue ribbons to be attached to this year's FA Cup. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 49.48%. A win for Manchester United had a probability of 27.38% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.29%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest Manchester United win was 1-2 (6.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Manchester City in this match.

Result
Manchester CityDrawManchester United
49.48% (0.583 0.58) 23.13% (-0.399 -0.4) 27.38% (-0.189 -0.19)
Both teams to score 60.21% (1.238 1.24)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.34% (1.703 1.7)40.66% (-1.706 -1.71)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.95% (1.725 1.73)63.04% (-1.727 -1.73)
Manchester City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.37% (0.858 0.86)16.63% (-0.861 -0.86)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.54% (1.521 1.52)46.45% (-1.524 -1.52)
Manchester United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.21% (0.747 0.75)27.78% (-0.75 -0.75)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.63% (0.945 0.95)63.36% (-0.948 -0.95)
Score Analysis
    Manchester City 49.49%
    Manchester United 27.38%
    Draw 23.13%
Manchester CityDrawManchester United
2-1 @ 9.52% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
1-0 @ 8.29% (-0.412 -0.41)
2-0 @ 7.44% (-0.15 -0.15)
3-1 @ 5.7% (0.166 0.17)
3-0 @ 4.45% (0.037 0.04)
3-2 @ 3.65% (0.179 0.18)
4-1 @ 2.56% (0.145 0.15)
4-0 @ 2% (0.073 0.07)
4-2 @ 1.64% (0.124 0.12)
5-1 @ 0.92% (0.076 0.08)
Other @ 3.35%
Total : 49.49%
1-1 @ 10.61% (-0.3 -0.3)
2-2 @ 6.1% (0.132 0.13)
0-0 @ 4.62% (-0.37 -0.37)
3-3 @ 1.56% (0.107 0.11)
Other @ 0.25%
Total : 23.13%
1-2 @ 6.8% (-0.045 -0.04)
0-1 @ 5.92% (-0.341 -0.34)
0-2 @ 3.79% (-0.136 -0.14)
1-3 @ 2.9% (0.041 0.04)
2-3 @ 2.6% (0.109 0.11)
0-3 @ 1.62% (-0.023 -0.02)
1-4 @ 0.93% (0.032 0.03)
Other @ 2.82%
Total : 27.38%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Brentford 1-0 Man City
Sunday, May 28 at 4.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Brighton 1-1 Man City
Wednesday, May 24 at 8pm in Premier League
Last Game: Man City 1-0 Chelsea
Sunday, May 21 at 4pm in Premier League
Last Game: Man City 4-0 Real Madrid
Wednesday, May 17 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Everton 0-3 Man City
Sunday, May 14 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Real Madrid 1-1 Man City
Tuesday, May 9 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Man Utd 2-1 Fulham
Sunday, May 28 at 4.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Man Utd 4-1 Chelsea
Thursday, May 25 at 8pm in Premier League
Last Game: Bournemouth 0-1 Man Utd
Saturday, May 20 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Man Utd 2-0 Wolves
Saturday, May 13 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: West Ham 1-0 Man Utd
Sunday, May 7 at 7pm in Premier League
Last Game: Brighton 1-0 Man Utd
Thursday, May 4 at 8pm in Premier League


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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