SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 68.22%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 12.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.45%) and 2-1 (9.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.08%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (4.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that River Plate would win this match.
| Result | ||
| River Plate | Draw | Vasco da Gama |
68.22% ( 1.19) | 19.08% ( -0.51) | 12.69% ( -0.69) |
| Both teams to score 48.22% ( -0.31) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.93% ( 0.64) | 44.06% ( -0.64) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.55% ( 0.62) | 66.44% ( -0.62) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.13% ( 0.52) | 11.87% ( -0.52) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.83% ( 1.09) | 37.17% ( -1.1) |
| Vasco da Gama Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.71% ( -0.67) | 45.29% ( 0.67) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.84% ( -0.54) | 81.16% ( 0.54) |
| Score Analysis |
| River Plate | Draw | Vasco da Gama |
| 2-0 @ 12.2% ( 0.15) 1-0 @ 11.45% ( -0.09)2-1 @ 9.67% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 8.67% ( 0.28)3-1 @ 6.87% ( 0.1)4-0 @ 4.62% ( 0.24)4-1 @ 3.66% ( 0.12)3-2 @ 2.72% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.97% ( 0.14)5-1 @ 1.56% ( 0.08)4-2 @ 1.45% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.37% Total : 68.21% | 1-1 @ 9.08% ( -0.24) 0-0 @ 5.38% ( -0.15)2-2 @ 3.83% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.8% Total : 19.08% | 0-1 @ 4.26% ( -0.2) 1-2 @ 3.6% ( -0.17)0-2 @ 1.69% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 1.01% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.06)Other @ 1.19% Total : 12.69% |
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