Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 49.64%. A win for Roma had a probability of 26.21% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.57%) and 2-0 (8.29%). The likeliest Roma win was 0-1 (6.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.39%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
0.06) 
-0.07) 
