While Fiorentina have recently stumbled, they are usually a tough nut to crack in Florence, and their visitors may have one eye on an upcoming European final. Roma's need to rotate could also dilute their chances of posting a vital away win, so they will have to settle for just a point against ambitious opponents. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 47.06%. A win for Roma had a probability of 29.28% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.35%) and 2-0 (7.16%). The likeliest Roma win was 1-2 (7.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.

Result
Fiorentina	Draw	Roma
47.06% ( 1.92)	23.66% ( -0.29)	29.28% ( -1.63)

Both teams to score 59.82% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.18% (

0.45)

41.82% (

-0.45)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.78% (

0.45)

64.22% (

-0.45)

Fiorentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.01% (

0.95)

17.99% (

-0.96)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.15% (

1.61)

48.85% (

-1.62)

Roma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.94% (

-0.84)

27.06% (

0.84)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.57% (

-1.11)

62.43% (

1.11)

Score Analysis

Fiorentina 47.06%

Roma 29.28%

Draw 23.65%

Fiorentina	Draw	Roma
2-1 @ 9.36% ( 0.16) 1-0 @ 8.35% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 7.16% ( 0.29) 3-1 @ 5.35% ( 0.25) 3-0 @ 4.1% ( 0.28) 3-2 @ 3.5% ( 0.08) 4-1 @ 2.3% ( 0.17) 4-0 @ 1.76% ( 0.17) 4-2 @ 1.5% ( 0.08) Other @ 3.69% Total : 47.06%	1-1 @ 10.91% ( -0.15) 2-2 @ 6.12% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 4.87% ( -0.1) 3-3 @ 1.52% Other @ 0.23% Total : 23.65%	1-2 @ 7.13% ( -0.27) 0-1 @ 6.36% ( -0.29) 0-2 @ 4.16% ( -0.29) 1-3 @ 3.11% ( -0.2) 2-3 @ 2.67% ( -0.08) 0-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.17) 1-4 @ 1.02% ( -0.09) Other @ 3.02% Total : 29.28%