Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Celta Vigo win with a probability of 37.26%. A win for Sporting Gijon had a probability of 34.57% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Celta Vigo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.86%) and 2-0 (6.92%). The likeliest Sporting Gijon win was 0-1 (11.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Celta Vigo would win this match.
-0.02) 
0.01) 
