Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leganes win with a probability of 42.95%. A draw had a probability of 29.8% and a win for Sporting Gijon had a probability of 27.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leganes win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.9%) and 2-1 (7.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.22%), while for a Sporting Gijon win it was 0-1 (11.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Leganes would win this match.
-0.76) 
0.57) 
