Sporting Gijon surely need a positive result on Sunday if they are to stand a chance in the second leg, but we are struggling to look past a very talented Espanyol outfit, backing the visitors to secure a first-leg advantage in this contest. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Gijon win with a probability of 40.97%. A win for Espanyol had a probability of 30.36% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Gijon win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.09%) and 2-0 (8.02%). The likeliest Espanyol win was 0-1 (10.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.24%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Espanyol would win this match.

Result
Sporting Gijon	Draw	Espanyol
40.97% ( 1.57)	28.67% ( 0.22)	30.36% ( -1.78)

Both teams to score 44.84% (

-1.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

38.58% (

-1.17)

61.42% (

1.17)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.69% (

-0.88)

81.3% (

0.88)

Sporting Gijon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.54% (

0.33)

29.46% (

-0.33)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.54% (

0.41)

65.46% (

-0.4)

Espanyol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.57% (

-1.95)

36.43% (

1.95)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.78% (

-2.02)

73.22% (

2.02)

Score Analysis

Sporting Gijon 40.96%

Espanyol 30.35%

Draw 28.66%

Sporting Gijon	Draw	Espanyol
1-0 @ 13.11% ( 0.67) 2-1 @ 8.09% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 8.02% ( 0.48) 3-1 @ 3.3% ( 0.06) 3-0 @ 3.27% ( 0.23) 3-2 @ 1.67% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 1.01% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 1% ( 0.08) Other @ 1.51% Total : 40.96%	1-1 @ 13.24% 0-0 @ 10.73% ( 0.46) 2-2 @ 4.09% ( -0.18) Other @ 0.61% Total : 28.66%	0-1 @ 10.83% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 6.69% ( -0.36) 0-2 @ 5.47% ( -0.35) 1-3 @ 2.25% ( -0.25) 0-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.23) 2-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.14) Other @ 1.9% Total : 30.35%