SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 52.77%. A win for Chesterfield had a probability of 23.97% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.69%) and 0-2 (8.65%). The likeliest Chesterfield win was 2-1 (6.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.93%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Chesterfield | Draw | Derby County |
23.97% ( 0.14) | 23.26% ( 0.04) | 52.77% ( -0.17) |
| Both teams to score 56.31% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.74% ( -0.05) | 44.26% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.37% ( -0.05) | 66.64% ( 0.05) |
| Chesterfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.66% ( 0.09) | 32.35% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.15% ( 0.1) | 68.86% ( -0.09) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.24% ( -0.08) | 16.77% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.3% ( -0.15) | 46.7% ( 0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chesterfield | Draw | Derby County |
| 2-1 @ 6.17% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 6.12% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 3.45% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 2.32% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.07% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.3% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.54% Total : 23.97% | 1-1 @ 10.93% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.51% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 5.42% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.23% ( 0)Other @ 0.17% Total : 23.26% | 1-2 @ 9.76% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 9.69% ( -0)0-2 @ 8.65% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 5.81% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 5.15% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 3.28% ( -0)1-4 @ 2.59% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 2.3% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.46% ( -0.01)1-5 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.15% Total : 52.77% |
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