Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 52.77%. A win for Chesterfield had a probability of 23.97% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.69%) and 0-2 (8.65%). The likeliest Chesterfield win was 2-1 (6.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.93%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.
Result | ||
Chesterfield | Draw | Derby County |
23.97% (![]() | 23.26% (![]() | 52.77% (![]() |
Both teams to score 56.31% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.74% (![]() | 44.26% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.37% (![]() | 66.64% (![]() |
Chesterfield Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.66% (![]() | 32.35% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.15% (![]() | 68.86% (![]() |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.24% (![]() | 16.77% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.3% (![]() | 46.7% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Chesterfield | Draw | Derby County |
2-1 @ 6.17% (![]() 1-0 @ 6.12% ( ![]() 2-0 @ 3.45% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 2.32% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 2.07% ( ![]() 3-0 @ 1.3% ( ![]() Other @ 2.54% Total : 23.97% | 1-1 @ 10.93% (![]() 2-2 @ 5.51% ( ![]() 0-0 @ 5.42% ( ![]() 3-3 @ 1.23% ( ![]() Other @ 0.17% Total : 23.26% | 1-2 @ 9.76% (![]() 0-1 @ 9.69% ( ![]() 0-2 @ 8.65% ( ![]() 1-3 @ 5.81% ( ![]() 0-3 @ 5.15% ( ![]() 2-3 @ 3.28% ( ![]() 1-4 @ 2.59% ( ![]() 0-4 @ 2.3% ( ![]() 2-4 @ 1.46% ( ![]() 1-5 @ 0.93% ( ![]() Other @ 3.15% Total : 52.77% |
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