Portsmouth and Derby will both be determined to claim three points to aid their respective promotion bids, but with the last three meetings finishing all square, we think that they will play out another draw in Tuesday's contest.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 39.85%. A win for Portsmouth had a probability of 34.95% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.66%) and 0-2 (6.41%). The likeliest Portsmouth win was 1-0 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
-0.26) 
0.07) 
