SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 39.88%. A win for Real Valladolid had a probability of 34.02% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.58%) and 2-0 (6.83%). The likeliest Real Valladolid win was 0-1 (8.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Real Valladolid |
39.88% ( -1.61) | 26.1% ( 0.41) | 34.02% ( 1.2) |
| Both teams to score 53.6% ( -1.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.15% ( -1.46) | 50.85% ( 1.46) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.26% ( -1.3) | 72.73% ( 1.3) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.91% ( -1.48) | 25.08% ( 1.47) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.22% ( -2.09) | 59.77% ( 2.08) |
| Real Valladolid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.54% ( 0.04) | 28.46% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.78% ( 0.06) | 64.22% ( -0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County | Draw | Real Valladolid |
| 1-0 @ 9.87% ( 0.16) 2-1 @ 8.58% ( -0.22)2-0 @ 6.83% ( -0.19)3-1 @ 3.96% ( -0.28)3-0 @ 3.15% ( -0.23)3-2 @ 2.49% ( -0.17)4-1 @ 1.37% ( -0.16)4-0 @ 1.09% ( -0.13)Other @ 2.57% Total : 39.88% | 1-1 @ 12.4% ( 0.21) 0-0 @ 7.14% ( 0.41)2-2 @ 5.39% ( -0.13)3-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.09% | 0-1 @ 8.97% ( 0.53) 1-2 @ 7.8% ( 0.14)0-2 @ 5.64% ( 0.34)1-3 @ 3.27% ( 0.06)0-3 @ 2.36% ( 0.14)2-3 @ 2.26% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 1.03% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.7% Total : 34.02% |
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