SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 38.77%. A win for Barnsley had a probability of 34.71% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.39%) and 0-2 (6.74%). The likeliest Barnsley win was 1-0 (9.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Barnsley would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Barnsley | Draw | Derby County |
34.71% ( 0.22) | 26.51% ( 0.02) | 38.77% ( -0.24) |
| Both teams to score 52.38% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.53% ( -0.06) | 52.46% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.86% ( -0.05) | 74.13% ( 0.05) |
| Barnsley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.19% ( 0.11) | 28.8% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.34% ( 0.14) | 64.66% ( -0.13) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.57% ( -0.16) | 26.42% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.4% ( -0.22) | 61.59% ( 0.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| Barnsley | Draw | Derby County |
| 1-0 @ 9.47% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 7.85% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 5.9% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 3.26% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 2.45% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2.17% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.01% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.62% Total : 34.71% | 1-1 @ 12.6% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.61% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 5.22% ( -0)3-3 @ 0.96% ( -0)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.5% | 0-1 @ 10.13% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 8.39% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 6.74% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 3.72% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 2.99% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.32% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.24% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 1% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.25% Total : 38.77% |
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