Empoli and Spezia have faced the most shots per game on average in Serie A this season (both over 16), so it could be an open affair at the Castellani. The hosts, though, are in far better form, and home advantage makes them likely winners against absence-hit opponents.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Empoli win with a probability of 45.77%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 27.91% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Empoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (8.45%). The likeliest Spezia win was 0-1 (8.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.
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