Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 62.35%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Green Gully had a probability of 18.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.94%) and 1-3 (7.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.23%), while for a Green Gully win it was 2-1 (4.95%). The actual scoreline of 2-6 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.
-0.04) 
0.03) 
