Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Union win with a probability of 40.03%. A win for Ajaccio had a probability of 33.28% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.5%) and 2-0 (7.1%). The likeliest Ajaccio win was 0-1 (9.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.
-0.41) 
0.49) 
