Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajaccio win with a probability of 48.01%. A draw had a probability of 28.1% and a win for Bastia had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajaccio win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10%) and 2-1 (8.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.76%), while for a Bastia win it was 0-1 (9.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.
0.2) 
-0.28) 
