Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southend United win with a probability of 43.98%. A win for Gillingham had a probability of 30.94% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southend United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.1%) and 2-0 (7.29%). The likeliest Gillingham win was 0-1 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.
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