Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 54.24%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Pau had a probability of 21.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.82%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.38%), while for a Pau win it was 0-1 (6.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.
0.14) 
-0.02) 
