Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pau win with a probability of 40.35%. A win for Troyes had a probability of 33.52% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pau win was 0-1 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.63%) and 0-2 (6.95%). The likeliest Troyes win was 1-0 (8.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.
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