SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Guatemala | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Canada | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Guadeloupe | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Cuba | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Guatemala | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Canada | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Guadeloupe | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Cuba | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guadeloupe win with a probability of 48.51%. A win for Cuba had a probability of 25.86% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guadeloupe win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.31%) and 0-2 (8.93%). The likeliest Cuba win was 1-0 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Guadeloupe would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cuba | Draw | Guadeloupe |
25.86% ( -1.13) | 25.62% ( 0.12) | 48.51% ( 1.01) |
| Both teams to score 50.75% ( -1.3) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.48% ( -1.25) | 52.52% ( 1.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.82% ( -1.08) | 74.18% ( 1.08) |
| Cuba Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.78% ( -1.59) | 35.22% ( 1.59) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.02% ( -1.7) | 71.97% ( 1.7) |
| Guadeloupe Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.34% ( -0.07) | 21.66% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.2% ( -0.11) | 54.79% ( 0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cuba | Draw | Guadeloupe |
| 1-0 @ 7.96% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 6.35% ( -0.26)2-0 @ 4.15% ( -0.16)3-1 @ 2.21% ( -0.19)3-2 @ 1.69% ( -0.15)3-0 @ 1.45% ( -0.12)Other @ 2.05% Total : 25.86% | 1-1 @ 12.17% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 7.63% ( 0.37)2-2 @ 4.86% ( -0.21)Other @ 0.95% Total : 25.61% | 0-1 @ 11.66% ( 0.54) 1-2 @ 9.31% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 8.93% ( 0.4)1-3 @ 4.75% ( -0)0-3 @ 4.55% ( 0.19)2-3 @ 2.48% ( -0.11)1-4 @ 1.82% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.74% ( 0.07)2-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.32% Total : 48.51% |
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