Preview

Data Analysis

 

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Heidenheim and Freiburg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Heidenheim will be hoping to bounce back from their loss last time out when they host Freiburg on Saturday at Voith-Arena in the Bundesliga.

The home side are fourth with six points after three games and lost 4-2 against Borussia Dortmund on September 13, while the away team are seventh but also have six points from their first three league fixtures.

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Match preview

Heidenheim's loss against Dortmund was the first time they have failed to win in their last eight competitive matches and the first time in their six games of 2024-25 that they conceded first.

In fact, the hosts' loss last time out was the first time they have conceded a goal in the Bundesliga this term.

Dortmund raced into a two-goal lead by the 17th minute, and though the Die Schanzer halved their deficit in the 39th minute, BVB restored their two-goal advantage in the 41st minute.

Heidenheim faced 39 shots in their opening three matches of the league season, but this high tally is not a surprise given they have averaged just 37.9% possession, the lowest possession figure of the 18 teams in the division.

However, manager Frank Schmidt could point to the fact his side have conceded the ninth lowest xG of any team in the top flight, and have also scored the third most goals of any team despite his side's limited possession.

Schmidt's team have won their last three competitive home matches by a cumulative score of 11-3 and are also unbeaten in their last four games at Voith-Arena.

Opponents Freiburg beat VfL Bochum 2-1 in their last Bundesliga fixture but were forced to come from behind after conceding in the 45th minute.

The visitors lost 2-0 in their second game of the league season against Bayern Munich on September 1 and beat Stuttgart 3-1 on August 24.

Given Stuttgart and Bayern finished second and third in 2023-24 respectively, it is fair to say that Breisgau-Brasilianer have had a difficult start to their 2024-25 campaign, but manager Julian Schuster has done well to earn six points from a possible nine.

Of the 18 teams in the top flight, Schuster's side have produced the third highest xG, the second most big chances and conceded the second least xG.

Freiburg have won three of their four competitive games this season, though prior to this campaign the away team had failed to win their last five matches.

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Team News

Heidenheim will be without midfielders Thomas Leon Keller, Julian Niehues and Denis Thomalla.

Goalkeeper Frank Feller will also be unavailable, so expect Kevin Muller to continue between the sticks.

As for the visitors, midfielder Merlin Rohl is set to miss out, as is forward Michael Gregoritsch and defender Manuel Gulde.

Daniel-Kofi Kyereh and Maximilian Philipp will also not feature for Freiburg.

Heidenheim possible starting lineup:
Muller; Traore, Mainka, Gimber, Fohrenbach; Schoppner, Maloney; Beck, Wanner, Scienza; Pieringer

Freiburg possible starting lineup:
Atubolu; Kubler, Rosenfelder, Lienhart, Gunter; Eggestein, Osterhage; Doan, Dinkci, Grifo; Adamu

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We say: Heidenheim 1-2 Freiburg

While Heidenheim have begun 2024-25 in excellent form, the fact they have played two additional competitive games this season could mean they come into the clash more fatigued than their opponents.

Freiburg have also started the season well, and it would not be a surprise if they left Voith-Arena with all three points.


For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.

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