SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 56.55%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Heidenheim had a probability of 21.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.77%) and 2-0 (9.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.46%), while for a Heidenheim win it was 1-2 (5.6%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Heidenheim |
56.55% ( -0.09) | 22.29% ( 0.04) | 21.15% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 55.82% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.86% ( -0.15) | 43.14% ( 0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.46% ( -0.14) | 65.54% ( 0.14) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.93% ( -0.08) | 15.07% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.41% ( -0.15) | 43.58% ( 0.14) |
| Heidenheim Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.72% ( -0.04) | 34.27% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.02% ( -0.05) | 70.97% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Heidenheim |
| 2-1 @ 9.9% ( -0) 1-0 @ 9.77% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 9.25% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 6.25% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 5.84% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.35% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.96% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 2.76% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.58% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.12% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.05% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.73% Total : 56.55% | 1-1 @ 10.46% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.3% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 5.16% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 22.28% | 1-2 @ 5.6% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 5.53% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 2.96% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2% 2-3 @ 1.89% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.06% ( 0)Other @ 2.11% Total : 21.15% |
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