SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Peru win with a probability of 37.15%. A win for El Salvador had a probability of 36.49% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Peru win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.21%) and 0-2 (6.34%). The likeliest El Salvador win was 1-0 (9.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Peru would win this match.
| Result | ||
| El Salvador | Draw | Peru |
36.49% ( -20.13) | 26.37% ( 1.16) | 37.15% ( 18.97) |
| Both teams to score 53% ( 10.41) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.26% ( 6.61) | 51.74% ( -6.62) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.49% ( 5.46) | 73.51% ( -5.46) |
| El Salvador Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.61% ( -6.75) | 27.39% ( 6.75) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.14% ( -9.65) | 62.86% ( 9.65) |
| Peru Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.99% ( 19.32) | 27.01% ( -19.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.64% ( 19.61) | 62.36% ( -19.62) |
| Score Analysis |
| El Salvador | Draw | Peru |
| 1-0 @ 9.58% ( -5.5) 2-1 @ 8.12% ( -1.04)2-0 @ 6.2% ( -5.7)3-1 @ 3.51% ( -1.31)3-0 @ 2.68% ( -3.58)3-2 @ 2.3% ( 0.44)4-1 @ 1.14% ( -0.77)Other @ 2.97% Total : 36.49% | 1-1 @ 12.54% ( 0.93) 0-0 @ 7.4% ( -2.17)2-2 @ 5.32% ( 1.79)3-3 @ 1% ( 0.53)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.37% | 0-1 @ 9.68% ( 2.32) 1-2 @ 8.21% ( 3.74)0-2 @ 6.34% ( 3.51)1-3 @ 3.58% ( 2.44)0-3 @ 2.77% ( 2.04)2-3 @ 2.32% ( 1.42)1-4 @ 1.17% ( 0.95)0-4 @ 0.91% ( 0.77)Other @ 2.18% Total : 37.15% |
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