SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Cameroon | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Cape Verde | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Ethiopia | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ethiopia win with a probability of 41.99%. A win for Lesotho had a probability of 34.52% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ethiopia win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.06%) and 2-0 (5.89%). The likeliest Lesotho win was 1-2 (7.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Ethiopia | Draw | Lesotho |
41.99% ( -0.01) | 23.49% ( 0.01) | 34.52% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 62.94% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.23% ( -0.03) | 38.77% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.92% ( -0.03) | 61.08% ( 0.04) |
| Ethiopia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.15% ( -0.02) | 18.85% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.69% ( -0.03) | 50.31% ( 0.04) |
| Lesotho Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.56% ( -0.01) | 22.44% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.03% ( -0.02) | 55.97% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ethiopia | Draw | Lesotho |
| 2-1 @ 8.8% ( -0) 1-0 @ 7.06% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 5.89% ( 0)3-1 @ 4.89% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.66% ( -0)3-0 @ 3.28% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.04% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.53% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.37% ( -0)Other @ 3.48% Total : 41.99% | 1-1 @ 10.54% 2-2 @ 6.58% ( -0)0-0 @ 4.23% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.82% ( -0)Other @ 0.31% Total : 23.48% | 1-2 @ 7.88% ( 0) 0-1 @ 6.32% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 4.72% ( 0)1-3 @ 3.93% ( -0)2-3 @ 3.28% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.35% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.47% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.22% ( -0)Other @ 3.35% Total : 34.52% |
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