SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Cameroon | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Cape Verde | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Ethiopia | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ethiopia win with a probability of 41.99%. A win for Lesotho had a probability of 34.52% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ethiopia win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.06%) and 2-0 (5.89%). The likeliest Lesotho win was 1-2 (7.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Ethiopia | Draw | Lesotho |
| 41.99% | 23.49% | 34.52% |
| Both teams to score 62.94% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.23% | 38.77% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.92% | 61.08% |
| Ethiopia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.15% | 18.85% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 49.69% | 50.31% |
| Lesotho Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.56% | 22.44% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 44.03% | 55.97% |
| Score Analysis |
| Ethiopia | Draw | Lesotho |
| 2-1 @ 8.8% 1-0 @ 7.06% 2-0 @ 5.89% 3-1 @ 4.89% 3-2 @ 3.66% 3-0 @ 3.28% 4-1 @ 2.04% 4-2 @ 1.53% 4-0 @ 1.37% Other @ 3.48% Total : 41.99% | 1-1 @ 10.54% 2-2 @ 6.58% 0-0 @ 4.23% 3-3 @ 1.82% Other @ 0.31% Total : 23.48% | 1-2 @ 7.88% 0-1 @ 6.32% 0-2 @ 4.72% 1-3 @ 3.93% 2-3 @ 3.28% 0-3 @ 2.35% 1-4 @ 1.47% 2-4 @ 1.22% Other @ 3.35% Total : 34.52% |
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