Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ethiopia win with a probability of 41.99%. A win for Lesotho had a probability of 34.52% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ethiopia win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.06%) and 2-0 (5.89%). The likeliest Lesotho win was 1-2 (7.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.