SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Senegal | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 2 | Guinea | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Malawi | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Zimbabwe | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Cameroon | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Cape Verde | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Ethiopia | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malawi win with a probability of 49.06%. A draw had a probability of 28.1% and a win for Ethiopia had a probability of 22.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malawi win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.36%) and 2-1 (8.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.66%), while for a Ethiopia win it was 0-1 (9.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Malawi would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Malawi | Draw | Ethiopia |
49.06% ( -0.01) | 28.07% ( 0.01) | 22.88% ( -0) |
| Both teams to score 41.45% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.85% ( -0.04) | 63.15% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.43% ( -0.02) | 82.57% ( 0.03) |
| Malawi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.96% ( -0.02) | 26.04% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.92% ( -0.03) | 61.08% ( 0.03) |
| Ethiopia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.04% ( -0.02) | 43.96% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.91% ( -0.02) | 80.09% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Malawi | Draw | Ethiopia |
| 1-0 @ 15.4% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 10.36% 2-1 @ 8.52% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 4.65% ( -0)3-1 @ 3.82% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.57% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.56% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.29% ( -0)Other @ 1.89% Total : 49.05% | 1-1 @ 12.66% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 11.44% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 3.5% ( -0)Other @ 0.46% Total : 28.06% | 0-1 @ 9.41% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 5.2% ( -0)0-2 @ 3.87% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.43% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.06% ( -0)2-3 @ 0.96% ( -0)Other @ 0.95% Total : 22.88% |
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