SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Senegal | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 2 | Guinea | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Malawi | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Zimbabwe | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Cameroon | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Cape Verde | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Ethiopia | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guinea win with a probability of 61.76%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Ethiopia had a probability of 14.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guinea win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.7%) and 2-1 (8.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.72%), while for a Ethiopia win it was 0-1 (6.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Guinea would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Guinea | Draw | Ethiopia |
61.76% ( 1.3) | 23.98% ( -0.42) | 14.27% ( -0.88) |
| Both teams to score 38.51% ( -0.79) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.4% ( 0.04) | 59.6% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.07% ( 0.03) | 79.93% ( -0.03) |
| Guinea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.86% ( 0.51) | 19.14% ( -0.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.21% ( 0.83) | 50.79% ( -0.83) |
| Ethiopia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 47.63% ( -1.28) | 52.37% ( 1.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 13.76% ( -0.84) | 86.24% ( 0.84) |
| Score Analysis |
| Guinea | Draw | Ethiopia |
| 1-0 @ 16.57% ( 0.24) 2-0 @ 13.7% ( 0.42)2-1 @ 8.86% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 7.55% ( 0.34)3-1 @ 4.88% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 3.12% ( 0.19)4-1 @ 2.02% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 1.58% ( -0.05)5-0 @ 1.03% ( 0.08)Other @ 2.44% Total : 61.75% | 1-1 @ 10.72% ( -0.24) 0-0 @ 10.02% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 2.87% ( -0.13)Other @ 0.37% Total : 23.97% | 0-1 @ 6.48% ( -0.26) 1-2 @ 3.47% ( -0.22)0-2 @ 2.1% ( -0.17)Other @ 2.22% Total : 14.27% |
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