SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Zambia | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Namibia | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Uganda | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 4 | Ivory Coast | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zambia win with a probability of 60.73%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Lesotho had a probability of 17.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zambia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.25%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.53%), while for a Lesotho win it was 0-1 (5.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zambia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Zambia | Draw | Lesotho |
60.73% ( 0.4) | 22.16% ( -0.17) | 17.11% ( -0.23) |
| Both teams to score 49.21% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.55% ( 0.34) | 48.45% ( -0.35) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.42% ( 0.31) | 70.58% ( -0.31) |
| Zambia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.5% ( 0.25) | 15.5% ( -0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.6% ( 0.46) | 44.39% ( -0.47) |
| Lesotho Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.23% ( -0.08) | 41.77% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.77% ( -0.07) | 78.23% ( 0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Zambia | Draw | Lesotho |
| 1-0 @ 12.06% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 11.25% ( 0.04)2-1 @ 9.82% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 6.99% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 6.1% ( 0.06)4-0 @ 3.26% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 2.85% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 2.67% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.24% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 1.22% ( 0.04)5-1 @ 1.06% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.2% Total : 60.72% | 1-1 @ 10.53% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 6.47% ( -0.09)2-2 @ 4.29% ( -0)Other @ 0.86% Total : 22.15% | 0-1 @ 5.65% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 4.6% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 2.47% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.25% ( -0)Other @ 1.81% Total : 17.11% |
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