SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paraguay win with a probability of 51.67%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Nicaragua had a probability of 22.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paraguay win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.11%) and 2-1 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.12%), while for a Nicaragua win it was 0-1 (7.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Paraguay would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Paraguay | Draw | Nicaragua |
51.67% ( 1.55) | 25.71% ( -0.72) | 22.61% ( -0.83) |
| Both teams to score 47.23% ( 1.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.51% ( 1.87) | 55.49% ( -1.87) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.32% ( 1.51) | 76.67% ( -1.51) |
| Paraguay Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.48% ( 1.46) | 21.52% ( -1.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.42% ( 2.19) | 54.58% ( -2.19) |
| Nicaragua Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.18% ( 0.25) | 39.82% ( -0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.51% ( 0.23) | 76.49% ( -0.23) |
| Score Analysis |
| Paraguay | Draw | Nicaragua |
| 1-0 @ 13.16% ( -0.38) 2-0 @ 10.11% ( 0.15)2-1 @ 9.31% ( 0.2)3-0 @ 5.18% ( 0.3)3-1 @ 4.77% ( 0.3)3-2 @ 2.2% ( 0.15)4-0 @ 1.99% ( 0.19)4-1 @ 1.83% ( 0.19)Other @ 3.13% Total : 51.67% | 1-1 @ 12.12% ( -0.26) 0-0 @ 8.57% ( -0.64)2-2 @ 4.29% ( 0.12)Other @ 0.74% Total : 25.71% | 0-1 @ 7.89% ( -0.53) 1-2 @ 5.58% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 3.63% ( -0.22)1-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.32% ( 0.05)0-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.06)Other @ 1.36% Total : 22.61% |
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