SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chile win with a probability of 55.93%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Paraguay had a probability of 18.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chile win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.7%) and 2-1 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.71%), while for a Paraguay win it was 0-1 (7.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chile would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chile | Draw | Paraguay |
55.93% ( 0.3) | 25.38% ( -0.15) | 18.68% ( -0.15) |
| Both teams to score 42.94% ( 0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.66% ( 0.35) | 58.34% ( -0.35) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.04% ( 0.27) | 78.95% ( -0.27) |
| Chile Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.09% ( 0.26) | 20.91% ( -0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.36% ( 0.41) | 53.64% ( -0.41) |
| Paraguay Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.3% ( 0.04) | 45.7% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.51% ( 0.03) | 81.49% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chile | Draw | Paraguay |
| 1-0 @ 14.95% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 11.7% ( 0.03)2-1 @ 9.16% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 6.1% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 4.78% ( 0.06)4-0 @ 2.39% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.87% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.87% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.1% Total : 55.93% | 1-1 @ 11.71% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 9.56% ( -0.13)2-2 @ 3.59% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.53% Total : 25.38% | 0-1 @ 7.48% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 4.59% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 2.93% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 1.2% ( -0)2-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.55% Total : 18.69% |
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