SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Peru win with a probability of 42.67%. A win for Paraguay had a probability of 30.51% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Peru win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (7.82%). The likeliest Paraguay win was 0-1 (9.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Peru in this match.
| Result | ||
| Peru | Draw | Paraguay |
42.67% ( 0.41) | 26.81% ( -0.02) | 30.51% ( -0.38) |
| Both teams to score 50.18% ( -0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.3% ( -0.05) | 54.7% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.98% ( -0.04) | 76.02% ( 0.04) |
| Peru Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.63% ( 0.19) | 25.38% ( -0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.82% ( 0.26) | 60.18% ( -0.26) |
| Paraguay Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.24% ( -0.3) | 32.76% ( 0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.69% ( -0.34) | 69.31% ( 0.34) |
| Score Analysis |
| Peru | Draw | Paraguay |
| 1-0 @ 11.39% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 8.72% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 7.82% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 3.99% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 3.57% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 2.23% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.37% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.23% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.36% Total : 42.66% | 1-1 @ 12.72% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.31% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.87% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.91% Total : 26.81% | 0-1 @ 9.28% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 7.1% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 5.18% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 2.64% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 1.93% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.58% Total : 30.51% |
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