SM
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Denmark | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Finland | 10 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 10 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 6 | San Marino | 10 | -28 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Scotland win with a probability of 55.89%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Northern Ireland had a probability of 19.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Scotland win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.74%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.45%), while for a Northern Ireland win it was 0-1 (6.83%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Scotland | Draw | Northern Ireland |
55.89% ( 1) | 24.18% ( -0.12) | 19.94% ( -0.88) |
| Both teams to score 48.09% ( -0.91) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.48% ( -0.55) | 52.52% ( 0.55) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.81% ( -0.47) | 74.18% ( 0.47) |
| Scotland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.34% ( 0.17) | 18.66% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.01% ( 0.29) | 49.99% ( -0.29) |
| Northern Ireland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.12% ( -1.24) | 40.88% ( 1.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.55% ( -1.13) | 77.45% ( 1.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Scotland | Draw | Northern Ireland |
| 1-0 @ 12.8% ( 0.34) 2-0 @ 10.74% ( 0.34)2-1 @ 9.62% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 6.01% ( 0.23)3-1 @ 5.38% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 2.52% ( 0.11)3-2 @ 2.41% ( -0.07)4-1 @ 2.26% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.12% Total : 55.87% | 1-1 @ 11.45% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 7.63% ( 0.16)2-2 @ 4.3% ( -0.15)Other @ 0.79% Total : 24.17% | 0-1 @ 6.83% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 5.12% ( -0.21)0-2 @ 3.05% ( -0.14)1-3 @ 1.53% ( -0.12)2-3 @ 1.28% ( -0.09)0-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.08)Other @ 1.22% Total : 19.94% |
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