SM
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 8 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | Denmark | 8 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Kazakhstan | 8 | 3 | 15 |
| 4 | Finland | 8 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 8 | -2 | 6 |
| 6 | San Marino | 8 | -25 | 0 |
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 8 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | Denmark | 8 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Kazakhstan | 8 | 3 | 15 |
| 4 | Finland | 8 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 8 | -2 | 6 |
| 6 | San Marino | 8 | -25 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Finland win with a probability of 41.67%. A win for Northern Ireland had a probability of 31.46% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Finland win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.62%) and 2-0 (7.58%). The likeliest Northern Ireland win was 0-1 (9.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Finland would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Finland | Draw | Northern Ireland |
41.67% ( -1.51) | 26.88% ( -0.15) | 31.46% ( 1.67) |
| Both teams to score 50.38% ( 1.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.37% ( 1.17) | 54.63% ( -1.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.03% ( 0.96) | 75.97% ( -0.96) |
| Finland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.13% ( -0.25) | 25.87% ( 0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.16% ( -0.34) | 60.84% ( 0.35) |
| Northern Ireland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.95% ( 1.82) | 32.05% ( -1.81) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.49% ( 2.02) | 68.51% ( -2.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Finland | Draw | Northern Ireland |
| 1-0 @ 11.2% ( -0.61) 2-1 @ 8.62% ( -0.09)2-0 @ 7.58% ( -0.47)3-1 @ 3.89% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 3.42% ( -0.24)3-2 @ 2.21% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 1.31% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 1.16% ( -0.09)Other @ 2.27% Total : 41.66% | 1-1 @ 12.75% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 8.29% ( -0.38)2-2 @ 4.91% ( 0.19)Other @ 0.93% Total : 26.87% | 0-1 @ 9.43% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 7.26% ( 0.33)0-2 @ 5.37% ( 0.28)1-3 @ 2.75% ( 0.25)0-3 @ 2.04% ( 0.2)2-3 @ 1.86% ( 0.16)Other @ 2.75% Total : 31.46% |
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