SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Morocco | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Congo DR | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Zambia | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Tanzania | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| Current Group G Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Hungary | 8 | 9 | 18 |
| 2 | Serbia | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Montenegro | 8 | -2 | 11 |
| 4 | Lithuania | 8 | -6 | 6 |
| 5 | Bulgaria | 8 | -7 | 4 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tanzania win with a probability of 35.99%. A win for Bulgaria had a probability of 35.18% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tanzania win was 1-0 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.53%) and 2-0 (6.77%). The likeliest Bulgaria win was 0-1 (11.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Bulgaria would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Tanzania | Draw | Bulgaria |
35.99% ( -0.01) | 28.82% ( -0) | 35.18% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 45.39% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.81% ( 0.01) | 61.19% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.86% ( 0.01) | 81.14% ( -0.01) |
| Tanzania Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.64% ( -0) | 32.36% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.13% ( -0) | 68.87% ( -0) |
| Bulgaria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.11% ( 0.01) | 32.89% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.53% ( 0.02) | 69.46% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Tanzania | Draw | Bulgaria |
| 1-0 @ 12% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 7.53% ( -0)2-0 @ 6.77% ( -0)3-1 @ 2.83% 3-0 @ 2.55% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.58% Other @ 2.72% Total : 35.99% | 1-1 @ 13.35% 0-0 @ 10.64% 2-2 @ 4.19% ( 0)Other @ 0.63% Total : 28.81% | 0-1 @ 11.83% 1-2 @ 7.43% ( 0)0-2 @ 6.58% ( 0)1-3 @ 2.75% ( 0)0-3 @ 2.44% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.55% ( 0)Other @ 2.6% Total : 35.18% |
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