SM
| Current Group G Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Hungary | 6 | 7 | 14 |
| 2 | Serbia | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Montenegro | 6 | -2 | 8 |
| 4 | Lithuania | 7 | -4 | 6 |
| 5 | Bulgaria | 6 | -7 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hungary win with a probability of 48.83%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Bulgaria had a probability of 24.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hungary win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.48%) and 1-2 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.43%), while for a Bulgaria win it was 1-0 (8.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Bulgaria | Draw | Hungary |
24.77% ( -0.01) | 26.4% ( -0.02) | 48.83% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 47.53% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.77% ( 0.05) | 56.23% ( -0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.72% ( 0.04) | 77.27% ( -0.04) |
| Bulgaria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.79% ( 0.02) | 38.21% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.03% ( 0.02) | 74.97% ( -0.02) |
| Hungary Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.92% ( 0.03) | 23.08% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.08% ( 0.05) | 56.92% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bulgaria | Draw | Hungary |
| 1-0 @ 8.48% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 5.98% ( 0)2-0 @ 4.08% ( -0)3-1 @ 1.92% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.41% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.31% Other @ 1.59% Total : 24.77% | 1-1 @ 12.43% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.82% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 4.39% ( 0)Other @ 0.75% Total : 26.39% | 0-1 @ 12.92% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 9.48% 1-2 @ 9.12% ( 0)0-3 @ 4.63% ( 0)1-3 @ 4.46% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.14% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.7% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.63% ( 0)Other @ 2.74% Total : 48.82% |
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