SM
| Current Group G Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Hungary | 7 | 7 | 15 |
| 2 | Serbia | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Montenegro | 7 | 0 | 11 |
| 4 | Lithuania | 8 | -6 | 6 |
| 5 | Bulgaria | 7 | -7 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Serbia win with a probability of 57.13%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Bulgaria had a probability of 20.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Serbia win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.44%) and 2-0 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.24%), while for a Bulgaria win it was 1-2 (5.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Serbia | Draw | Bulgaria |
57.13% ( -0.21) | 21.94% ( -0) | 20.93% ( 0.22) |
| Both teams to score 56.66% ( 0.35) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.13% ( 0.3) | 41.87% ( -0.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.73% ( 0.3) | 64.27% ( -0.3) |
| Serbia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.55% ( 0.04) | 14.45% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.6% ( 0.07) | 42.4% ( -0.06) |
| Bulgaria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.24% ( 0.38) | 33.77% ( -0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.57% ( 0.41) | 70.43% ( -0.4) |
| Score Analysis |
| Serbia | Draw | Bulgaria |
| 2-1 @ 9.91% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 9.44% ( -0.12)2-0 @ 9.13% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 6.39% ( 0)3-0 @ 5.89% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 3.47% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 3.09% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.85% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.68% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 1.2% ( 0)5-0 @ 1.1% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.99% Total : 57.13% | 1-1 @ 10.24% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.38% ( 0.05)0-0 @ 4.88% ( -0.07)3-3 @ 1.26% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.18% Total : 21.94% | 1-2 @ 5.56% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 5.3% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 2.88% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 2.01% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 1.95% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 1.04% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.19% Total : 20.93% |
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