SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Iraq | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | Japan | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Indonesia | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Vietnam | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Russia win with a probability of 39.24%. A win for Vietnam had a probability of 34.16% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Russia win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (6.88%). The likeliest Vietnam win was 1-0 (9.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.64%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Russia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vietnam | Draw | Russia |
34.16% ( -0.16) | 26.6% ( 0.02) | 39.24% ( 0.14) |
| Both teams to score 52.01% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.1% ( -0.1) | 52.89% ( 0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.49% ( -0.09) | 74.5% ( 0.08) |
| Vietnam Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.63% ( -0.15) | 29.36% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.65% ( -0.19) | 65.35% ( 0.18) |
| Russia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.63% ( 0.03) | 26.37% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.48% ( 0.04) | 61.52% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vietnam | Draw | Russia |
| 1-0 @ 9.49% ( -0) 2-1 @ 7.75% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 5.81% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 3.17% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 2.38% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.11% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 0.97% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.49% Total : 34.16% | 1-1 @ 12.64% 0-0 @ 7.74% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 5.17% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.59% | 0-1 @ 10.32% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 8.43% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 6.88% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 3.75% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 3.06% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.3% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.25% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.02% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.24% Total : 39.23% |
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