SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mexico | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | Qatar | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Honduras | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 4 | Haiti | 3 | -2 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Russia win with a probability of 38.22%. A win for Qatar had a probability of 31.82% and a draw had a probability of 30%.
The most likely scoreline for a Russia win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.58%) and 1-2 (7.45%). The likeliest Qatar win was 1-0 (12.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Qatar | Draw | Russia |
31.82% ( 1.3) | 29.96% ( 0.55) | 38.22% ( -1.86) |
| Both teams to score 41.9% ( -1.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 34.77% ( -1.46) | 65.23% ( 1.47) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.95% ( -1.03) | 84.05% ( 1.03) |
| Qatar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.58% ( 0.18) | 37.42% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.79% ( 0.17) | 74.21% ( -0.17) |
| Russia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.96% ( -1.89) | 33.04% ( 1.89) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.37% ( -2.15) | 69.63% ( 2.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Qatar | Draw | Russia |
| 1-0 @ 12.15% ( 0.7) 2-1 @ 6.62% ( 0.08)2-0 @ 5.97% ( 0.37)3-1 @ 2.17% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 1.96% ( 0.13)3-2 @ 1.2% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.75% Total : 31.82% | 1-1 @ 13.45% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 12.36% ( 0.65)2-2 @ 3.66% ( -0.15)Other @ 0.47% Total : 29.95% | 0-1 @ 13.69% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 7.58% ( -0.39)1-2 @ 7.45% ( -0.34)0-3 @ 2.8% ( -0.3)1-3 @ 2.75% ( -0.28)2-3 @ 1.35% ( -0.13)Other @ 2.59% Total : 38.22% |
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