SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Algeria | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Senegal | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Kenya | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 4 | Tanzania | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Russia win with a probability of 48.3%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Kenya had a probability of 24.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Russia win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.75%) and 1-2 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.65%), while for a Kenya win it was 1-0 (9.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Kenya | Draw | Russia |
24.41% ( 0.01) | 27.28% ( -0.01) | 48.3% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 44.8% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.41% ( 0.03) | 59.59% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.07% ( 0.02) | 79.92% ( -0.02) |
| Kenya Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.57% ( 0.03) | 40.42% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.96% ( 0.03) | 77.03% ( -0.03) |
| Russia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.21% ( 0.01) | 24.79% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.63% ( 0.01) | 59.36% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Kenya | Draw | Russia |
| 1-0 @ 9.08% ( -0) 2-1 @ 5.73% ( 0)2-0 @ 4.11% ( 0)3-1 @ 1.73% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.24% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.21% ( 0)Other @ 1.31% Total : 24.41% | 1-1 @ 12.65% 0-0 @ 10.01% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 4% ( 0)Other @ 0.61% Total : 27.27% | 0-1 @ 13.97% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 9.75% ( -0.01)1-2 @ 8.83% ( 0)0-3 @ 4.53% ( -0)1-3 @ 4.11% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.86% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.58% 1-4 @ 1.43% ( 0)Other @ 2.25% Total : 48.3% |
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