SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Iraq | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | Japan | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Indonesia | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Vietnam | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vietnam win with a probability of 65.67%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Philippines had a probability of 13.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vietnam win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.91%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.85%), while for a Philippines win it was 0-1 (5.09%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vietnam would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vietnam | Draw | Philippines |
65.67% ( -2.05) | 20.88% ( 0.93) | 13.45% ( 1.12) |
| Both teams to score 44.71% ( 0.29) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.04% ( -1.36) | 49.95% ( 1.36) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.06% ( -1.23) | 71.94% ( 1.22) |
| Vietnam Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.58% ( -1.05) | 14.42% ( 1.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.66% ( -2.07) | 42.34% ( 2.07) |
| Philippines Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.24% ( 0.97) | 47.76% ( -0.97) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 16.94% ( 0.7) | 83.05% ( -0.7) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vietnam | Draw | Philippines |
| 1-0 @ 13.33% ( 0.23) 2-0 @ 12.91% ( -0.27)2-1 @ 9.54% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 8.34% ( -0.51)3-1 @ 6.16% ( -0.2)4-0 @ 4.04% ( -0.41)4-1 @ 2.98% ( -0.22)3-2 @ 2.28% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.56% ( -0.23)5-1 @ 1.16% ( -0.13)4-2 @ 1.1% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.26% Total : 65.66% | 1-1 @ 9.85% ( 0.43) 0-0 @ 6.88% ( 0.37)2-2 @ 3.53% ( 0.12)Other @ 0.61% Total : 20.88% | 0-1 @ 5.09% ( 0.4) 1-2 @ 3.64% ( 0.25)0-2 @ 1.88% ( 0.2)Other @ 2.84% Total : 13.45% |
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