SM
| Current Group I Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Romania | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Switzerland | 10 | 11 | 17 |
| 3 | Israel | 10 | 0 | 15 |
| 4 | Belarus | 10 | -5 | 12 |
| 5 | Kosovo | 10 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Andorra | 10 | -17 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Russia win with a probability of 52.02%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Belarus had a probability of 22.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Russia win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.07%) and 1-2 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.02%), while for a Belarus win it was 1-0 (7.71%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Russia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Belarus | Draw | Russia |
22.53% ( -0.22) | 25.44% ( -0.1) | 52.02% ( 0.32) |
| Both teams to score 47.9% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.43% ( 0.15) | 54.57% ( -0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.09% ( 0.13) | 75.91% ( -0.12) |
| Belarus Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.63% ( -0.13) | 39.38% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.93% ( -0.12) | 76.08% ( 0.13) |
| Russia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79% ( 0.2) | 21% ( -0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.23% ( 0.31) | 53.77% ( -0.3) |
| Score Analysis |
| Belarus | Draw | Russia |
| 1-0 @ 7.71% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 5.61% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 3.59% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 1.74% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.36% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 1.12% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.42% Total : 22.53% | 1-1 @ 12.02% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 8.27% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 4.37% ( -0)Other @ 0.78% Total : 25.44% | 0-1 @ 12.9% 0-2 @ 10.07% ( 0.06)1-2 @ 9.39% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 5.24% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 4.88% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.28% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 2.04% ( 0.04)1-4 @ 1.91% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.32% Total : 52.02% |
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