Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iraq win with a probability of 53.18%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Vietnam had a probability of 22.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Iraq win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.95%) and 2-1 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.7%), while for a Vietnam win it was 0-1 (7.15%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Iraq would win this match.
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