Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gamba Osaka win with a probability of 44.15%. A win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 29.07% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gamba Osaka win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.84%) and 2-0 (8.2%). The likeliest Sagan Tosu win was 0-1 (9.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.