Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kashiwa Reysol win with a probability of 47.21%. A win for Tokushima Vortis had a probability of 27.19% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kashiwa Reysol win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.27%) and 2-0 (8.5%). The likeliest Tokushima Vortis win was 0-1 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Kashiwa Reysol would win this match.