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Champions League | Quarter-Finals | 2nd Leg
Apr 16, 2024 at 8pm UK
Signal-Iduna-Park
AM

Dortmund
4 - 2
Atletico

Brandt (34'), Maatsen (39'), Fullkrug (71'), Sabitzer (74')
Ryerson (43')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Hummels (49' og.), Correa (64')
Azpilicueta (30'), Hermoso (45+1')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 44.56%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 32.45% and a draw had a probability of 23%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.87%) and 2-0 (6.07%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 1-2 (7.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.16%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
Borussia DortmundDrawAtletico Madrid
44.56% (0.025999999999996 0.03) 22.99% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01) 32.45% (-0.019999999999996 -0.02)
Both teams to score 64.06% (0.012999999999991 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
63% (0.024000000000001 0.02)36.99% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.82% (0.024999999999999 0.02)59.18% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.92% (0.016999999999996 0.02)17.08% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.73% (0.034999999999997 0.03)47.26% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.25% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)22.74%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.58%56.42% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Score Analysis
    Borussia Dortmund 44.56%
    Atletico Madrid 32.45%
    Draw 22.98%
Borussia DortmundDrawAtletico Madrid
2-1 @ 8.98% (0.0010000000000012 0)
1-0 @ 6.87% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
2-0 @ 6.07% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-1 @ 5.29% (0.0039999999999996 0)
3-2 @ 3.92% (0.004 0)
3-0 @ 3.57% (0.0029999999999997 0)
4-1 @ 2.34% (0.004 0)
4-2 @ 1.73% (0.002 0)
4-0 @ 1.58% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 4.22%
Total : 44.56%
1-1 @ 10.16% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-2 @ 6.65% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-0 @ 3.88% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-3 @ 1.93% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 0.35%
Total : 22.98%
1-2 @ 7.53% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
0-1 @ 5.75% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-2 @ 4.26% (-0.0059999999999993 -0.01)
1-3 @ 3.72% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
2-3 @ 3.28% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 2.1% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-4 @ 1.38%
2-4 @ 1.22% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 3.21%
Total : 32.45%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Borussia M'bach 1-2 Dortmund
Saturday, April 13 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Atletico 2-1 Dortmund
Wednesday, April 10 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Dortmund 0-1 Stuttgart
Saturday, April 6 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Bayern 0-2 Dortmund
Saturday, March 30 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Dortmund 3-1 Frankfurt
Sunday, March 17 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Dortmund 2-0 PSV
Wednesday, March 13 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Atletico 3-1 Girona
Saturday, April 13 at 1pm in La Liga
Last Game: Atletico 2-1 Dortmund
Wednesday, April 10 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Villarreal 1-2 Atletico
Monday, April 1 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Atletico 0-3 Barcelona
Sunday, March 17 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Atletico 2-1 Inter Milan (3-2 pen.)
Wednesday, March 13 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Cadiz 2-0 Atletico
Saturday, March 9 at 3.15pm in La Liga


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