Villarreal's recent form has been impressive, and the Yellow Submarine still have an outside chance of claiming a European spot this season. Rayo will be in a confident mood heading into the contest, and we are backing the visitors to score, but Villarreal should be able to navigate their way to an important three points.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 51.39%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 24.43% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.65%) and 2-0 (8.91%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 (6.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.47%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
0.26) 
-0.11) 
