Villarreal are flying at the moment, and we are finding it difficult to predict the hosts to lose here, especially considering Atletico's away struggles. The Red and Whites will be determined to avoid a third straight league defeat, meanwhile, and we can see the points being shared in a low-scoring draw.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 44.82%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 30.46% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.19%) and 2-0 (7.29%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (7.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.
0.29) 
-0.49) 
