Girona's European bid appears to have run out of steam with a four-game winless run, and we think that the visitors will fall to a narrow defeat against an Osasuna side that have won four of their last five home league matches.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Osasuna win with a probability of 49.04%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Girona had a probability of 25.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Osasuna win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (9.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.15%), while for a Girona win it was 0-1 (7.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Osasuna in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Osasuna.
-0.92) 
0.57) 
