Rayo may have failed to win any of their last three matches, but Wednesday's game represents a golden chance to return to winning ways.
Granada have lost 14 of their 17 away La Liga games this season, and we think that they will fall to another defeat at Vallecas.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 60.74%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Granada had a probability of 16.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.83%) and 2-1 (9.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.73%), while for a Granada win it was 0-1 (5.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Rayo Vallecano would win this match.
0.38) 
-0.15) 
