Valencia need a win to boost their European hopes, and we are expecting them to triumph on Sunday against a Rayo side that have largely struggled in the second half of the season. However, it is likely to be a tight affair, with perhaps just one goal separating the two sides at the end of the 90 minutes.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Valencia win with a probability of 44.5%. A draw had a probability of 28.4% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 27.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Valencia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.97%) and 2-1 (8.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.05%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (10.17%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.
-0.36) 
0.08) 
