SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Sociedad win with a probability of 36.49%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 35.49% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Sociedad win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.8%) and 2-0 (6.7%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (11.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Real Sociedad would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Real Sociedad | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
36.49% ( 0.06) | 28.02% ( 0.03) | 35.49% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 47.72% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.65% ( -0.11) | 58.35% ( 0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.04% ( -0.09) | 78.96% ( 0.09) |
| Real Sociedad Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.4% ( -0.02) | 30.61% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 33.16% ( -0.02) | 66.84% ( 0.02) |
| Athletic Bilbao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.76% ( -0.11) | 31.24% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 32.42% ( -0.13) | 67.58% ( 0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Real Sociedad | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
| 1-0 @ 11.31% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 7.8% ( 0)2-0 @ 6.7% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 3.08% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.65% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.79% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 0.91% ( -0)Other @ 2.25% Total : 36.48% | 1-1 @ 13.17% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.56% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 4.54% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.76% Total : 28.02% | 0-1 @ 11.12% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.66% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 6.47% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.97% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.51% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.99% Total : 35.48% |
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